18/n One of the (few) successes of #COP26 in #Glasgow was the establishment of an #AnnualRatchet : NDCs have to be “ratched up” every year, and they can’t go back. In theory, the #RatchetMechanism IS a good system
19/n After #COP26 i really thought that surely the #Ratchet and NDCs were where we should focus - climate activists in each country putting pressure on their governments to improve their NDCs substantially every year. But it turned out that i was alone in this. Like, even a year or so on, when i searched ratchet or NDCs in Twitter, i quickly came to my own tweets! Others explained this lack of interest in disillusion. Maybe but I am still a bit curious why noone ever talks about this.
20/n Anyway sceptics were probably right: this year’s #GlobalStocktake synthesis report has shown that, so far, the ratchet hasn’t worked well enough; all governments, all NDCs are falling abysmally short of what’s needed.
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09E.pdf
Here also a good #CarbonBrief Q&A on the Global Stock Take
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/
21/n Another key concern at #COP28 is #LossAndDamage. This was the one area where there was real progress at #COP27 last year in Egypt: for the first time, countries agreed to set up a fund for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters. Loss and Damage is simultaneously essential and deeply inadequate as a #ClimateJustice measure: no amount of money is going to compensate for the loss of entire Islands or cities! But it must be provided
22/n A couple of weeks ago, at a pre-COP28 meeting in #AbuDhabi, there was further real progress, when rich and poor country governments managed to agree on a blue-print of the #LossAndDamage fund. This will be announced officially in #Dubai at #COP28 next week, but it’s really good this is already in place - now we “just” need actual money to start materialising.
23/n Another big theme at #COP28 is wider #ClimateFinance, beyond Loss and Damage. This includes generating more private #investment; reforming Multilateral Development Banks (#MDBs) to better address #ClimateChange; and strengthening the #NetworkForGreeningTheFinancialSystem (#NGFS)
Not my field at ALL, but I found this article provides a useful short introduction
24/n But the biggest - most important but also most difficult - task at #COP28 will be to make real progress on the phasing out of #FossilFuels. This is the crux of the matter- and so many forces stacked up against this, what with it taking place in #petrolstate and all!
For the next few days, this is what I will focus on in this 🧵 - what’s at stake, but also how some parties are deliberately delaying action.
For today, will end with this useful #COP28 scorecard:
#ClimateDiary #COP28 🧵 (no insider knowledge, just trying to stay informed and thought I might share a few things)
25/n So, on phasing out of #fossilfuels: it is obvious that a) many countries/parties are refusing to commit to the complete phasing out of fossil fuels countries, and b) there is, as always, a whole forest of terms and clauses to come to grips with, obfuscating things. You can see this from this overview of positions of by #CarbonBrief:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-who-wants-what-at-the-cop28-climate-change-summit/
26/n Two somewhat confusing terms that seems to be used a lot this year are #Abated and #Unabated #FossilFuels. What does this mean?
On the face of it, "Unabated" is when fossil fuels are burnt and the emissions end up in the air, just like that. "Abating", or reducing, those emissions would require restrictions such as technologies to capture and bury #CO2 etc. However, in practice these terms are very ambiguous and unhelpful, helping #ClimateDelay parties.
https://www.context.news/net-zero/cop28-climate-dispute-what-are-unabated-fossil-fuels
27/n It's worth highlighting the #HighAmbitionCoalition here, who released this statement a month ago, explaining why they want to phase out #FossilFuels entirely, and why "abating" is misleading and NOT the way forward (we don't have the technologies yet!). There are 16 African (eg #Kenya, European (eg #Netherlands) and small island countries (eg #Tuvalu and #Vanuatu) in this coalition:
28/n However, many other countries, including #US, #India #China and #UAE oppose this and are going for "Phasing DOWN of Unabated Fossil Fuels Emissions", instead of Phasing OUT of all fossil fuel emissions. Which sounds quite similar and quite good, but actually really works to allow fossil fuels to continue as long as possible. Sultan Al Jaber, president of #COP28 but also, of course, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has this position. So not good. But:
29/n Don't forget that as recently as three years ago (I think), #FossilFuels were not even mentioned in COP documents! So there is some progress, in that at least all this is being debated and talked about. #COP28 may well be quite a fractious for these reasons, and chances for phasing OUT of all fossil fuels being decided on are more than slim, but at least it's on the table.
30/n Nevertheless, critics are definitely 100% right that #Greenwashing and #ClimateDelay will dominate at #COP28. One reason for this alone is Al Jaber's reliance on the consultancy firm #McKinseys in running #COP28. McKinseys have worked for many fossil fuel companies for years, and it telling, alarming and chilling in equal measures that they are so involved
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2023/11/08/companies/mckinsey-climate-change-whistleblowers/
31/n by the way, when you put 'McKinsey COP28' into Google, as I just did, trying to find the critical articles exposing this a couple of weeks ago, all you get is McKinsey itself - it all looks very good, very committed, but don't be fooled! This kind of 'sustainability' is a prime example of the corporate capture of #Sustainability - another word, of course, that is so ambiguous that it is endlessly misused and appropriated.
#ClimateDiary 32/n And of course the big story to add to 🧵 today is the revelation that the #UAE was/is planning to use #COP28 talks to make #oil deals with other countries. Infuriating, depressing - yes; surprising - no. Using official meetings for other, directly contradictory deals is kind of common practice. Perfect opportunity, having everyone together!
But does this mean we should forget about #COP28 and COPs in general? In my view - also no.
33/n Surely scrutiny, attention, criticism is exactly what we need more of, not less, at this moment? Saying this also in response to your reply here yesterday, @breadandcircuses (pasted in here)
For me, engaging with the #COP28 is not at all born from trust in oil barons, on the contrary. Really. It is precisely because I don’t trust them that I feel we can’t disengage or just leave them to it; we need to keep on engaging, understanding processes, keeping up pressure.
https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses/111477105941127593
34/n Yes, I know. #COP28 is greenwashing, theatre, corrupt - all of this. But it is the only global climate forum, the only forum where small island Nations have any sort of power and audience, as Tina Stege, the #climateenvoy for the #MarshallIslandsx recently reminded us (see 11/n ⬆️) and what happens there really matters! So we need to do whatever we can (v little i know) to steer things towards better outcomes, not disengage. Here another TS interview, v powerful too
35/n Another lovely term to look out for at #COP28 is the “Oil Demand Sustainability Programme" or #ODSP - essentially a plan to drive UP the use of #FossilFuels in #Africa, as rich countries increasingly switch to clean energy. Thank you @ariadne
for drawing our attention to this! As Ariadne says, it is just like what was done with #tobacco - now that smoking is curtailed in Global North, Indonesia is the smoking capital of the world; that’s the market now.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/27/revealed-saudi-arabia-plan-poor-countries-oil
36/n I am thinking again now of my recent visit to #Dodoma (yes, HUGE flying guilt, see many posts about this), the new, rapidly expanding capital of #Tanzania. Everywhere you looked, new petrol stations were being built. You can’t and shouldn’t blame African countries entering these development paths, but there are many discussions about this within #Africa.
37/n One idea (another addition to this #COP28 #glossary of sorts) discussed for the last couple of years in this context is that #Africa might #LeapFrog in its #EnergyTransition - ie, that it doesn't have to go through the #FossilFuel stage but can skip it and go straight to clean energy and renewables. One useful summary of this is provided here by Wartsila (a renewable energy company) but there are many critics. Obviously some real #ClimateJustice issues here.
https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy/pathways-for-africas-energy-future
38/n #COP28 🧵 An important addition/corrective to post 35 ⬆️ on #ODSP above, especially as that got quite a lot of traction. Thank you to @WahbAllat for providing this - it’s really important to not go down the “those bad Saudis” route. In fact, the #US remains the world’s leading oil and gas behemoth and continues to grow, with a record 12.9m barrels of crude oil, more than double what was produced a decade ago, forecast to be extracted in 2023.
39/n Here also a brillant sum-up by Timmons Roberts (CSSN) of what we - those of us who desperately want #COP28 to deliver real, much needed #ClimateAction - are always up against in the #FossilFuel lobby:
“a highly sophisticated, well-funded network of people who are used to winning, and to winning big” .
Btw #CSSN (Climate Social Science Network), set up by Timmons, does really great, incisive work on #ClimateObstruction and #ClimateDelay - do check it out
40/n Final addition today: everyone please read and share this beautiful, heartbreaking post by @bwinbwin
about the #MarshallIslands. It was written in response to a few posts (11 and 34 ⬆️) about the wonderful Tina Stegen, climate envoy of the Marshall Islands- do watch the videos, too, she speaks so powerfully. We should all try and approach #COP28 as Marshall Islanders, and with “Mantin Majel” wisdom ❤️:
41/n #COP28 🧵 Well today Al Jaber announced that 1.5°C and an “unprecedented outcome” are within reach. Wouldn’t it be amazing if he - CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company - actually delivered this? In Dubai?
I would love it to happen. Not just because this would obviously be brilliant for everyone on this planet, but also just as a story! So go for it!
And yes: I KNOW. McKinsey will not take us to under 1.5, that’s for sure.
@pvonhellermannn @scottgal Yeah, that’s not happening I don’t think
42/n #COP28 This #Heated piece by Emily Atkin says exactly what i have been trying to express in this thread:
“The fossil fuel interests attempting to corrupt COP28 would love nothing more than for us to look away. So we will continue to pay attention, not in spite of the bullshit, but because of it.”